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Every year I get pissed off at a number of Academy Awards selections, but they didn't do as badly as most years as far as their nominations were concerned. I still feel that Juno is vastly over-rated as their pick for honoring the token "quirky indie flick" and that Michael Clayton is far too formulaic to receive the Oscar acclaim and that Atonement isn't as clever as the Academy thinks... but I'll refrain from totally bashing them this year. (To see my personal favorites, they are listed at Best Movies of 2007)
So here we go again—On with the horse race. Following are my early predictions, not based on any insider information, nor can I honestly go on my own observations since I've not been able to see some of the documentaries, short subjects, or foreign films that have only screened for New Yorkers and Angelinos.
| 2008 Oscar Predictions
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Best Picture
Two of the nominees I've named on my Best of 2007 list, so I'm generally OK with either of those picks. I'll only barf if the Academy gets too swept up in quirky indie fever since Juno isn't a whole lot more than what you can pick up from a literate blog on the Internet and sports a main character that actually was sketched a few years ago in the little seen vampire flick Ginger Snaps.
The Coen brothers are long overdue to pick up a gold, so I'm expecting the Academy to go along with the wide ranging critical recognition that they've garnered during the awards season—and overlook the darkness of the nihilistic themes of No Country for Old Men to rightfully name it Best Picture. |
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Best Actor
One of the more certain winners should be Daniel Day-Lewis' performance as oil baron There Will Be Blood; he has swept virtually all the major awards leading up to the Oscars. It's not that there's no competition since Viggo Mortensen brawls butt naked in Eastern Promises and Johnny Depp demonstrates great emotional range and a singing voice in Sweeney Todd, and the Academy always loves everything that George Clooney does. Daniel Day-Lewis just stands above the fray in this contest. |
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Best Actress
Of the five nominees only Cate Blanchett is out of the running (Hasn't she played Elizabeth before?), and there's no clear cut favorite among the other four. The Academy usually reserves a scriptwriting award for its token quirky indie, so that diminishes Ellen Page's odds a bit, and unfortunately not that many saw Laura Linney in the excellent The Savages to weaken her bid. I'd vote for Marion Cotillard's portrayal of Edith Piaf in La Vie en Rose, but really expect Julie Christie to take the prize as an Alzheimer's patient in Away From Her. Julie's been around for a while, and the Academy likes the more blantant acting jobs that sick people or psychos play. |
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Best Supporting Actor
This is the category that is most upset prone, but it would take a monumental one to deprive Javier Bardem from taking the top prize this year for his relentless bad ass villain in No Country for Old Men. For sentimental value it's nice to see the Academy give a nod to Hal Holbrook after all these years and also recognize Casey Affleck's excellent work in The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (recognizing that acting talent in the Affleck family isn't genetic, but they'll never honor a movie with that long a title).
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Best Supporting Actress
Roll the dice on this one. Total tossup in another upset prone category with only Attonement's Saoirse Ronan out of the running (despite the Academy's fondness for child actors). If the Academy goes mainstream, that gives Michael Clayton's Tilda Swinton an edge since she has far more screen time than Ruby Dee does in American Gangster. I'd vote for Cate Blanchett, but I'm Not There is too weird for Academy tastes, so I'll roll the dice and predict Amy Ryan wins for Gone Baby Gone. |
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Best Director
Since The Diving Bell and the Butterfly wasn't among the five nominees for Best Picture, it's hard to imagine Julian Schnabel taking this prize for his innovative film. Expect this one to accompany the winner for Best Picture, so ring this up for the Coen brothers' body of work, now culminated with No Country for Old Men. |
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Original Screenplay
Writing awards have recently been the domain for the really good independent films that the Academy can't bring themselves to vote for in the more visible mainstream categories, but this year they'll go with the box office figures to honor Juno instead. More worthy would be either Ratatouille or The Savages, but Diablo Cody has her Oscar stored in a lock box. |
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Adapted Screenplay
Although it wouldn't be shocking to see either There Will Be Blood or The Diving Bell and the Butterfly receive this award, by all rights it should go to the year's best movie for its well executed adaptation of Cormac McCarthy's novel—tailor made for the Coen brothers. |
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Foreign Language Film
It's been a horrible year for Phoenix as far as screening foreign language film candidates. The best I've seen was rejected by France since the director wasn't French, and Academy rules messed up other candidates like The Band's Visit and Romania's Palm d'Or winner. So given the void of candidates, go with the Holocaust related film to win—the Academy loves anything Holocaust related: The Counterfeiters. |
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Documentary Feature
I've been able to see four of the five nominees in the category, and have heard great things about Taxi to the Dark Side so wouldn't be shocked to see this win at all, given the current political climate. Only Michael Moore's Sicko and Charles Ferguson's No End in Sight offer strong competition, as the other two are more suited for PBS or The History Channel. Since I've not yet seen Gibney's film, I'll predict the Academy will slap the Bush administration by honoring Ferguson's excellent film about the fiasco in Iraq. |
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